Estimating the Rate of Return to Education using Microsimulation

This paper attempts to use microsimulation methods to compare returns to education in four European countries, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the United Kingdom. This paper broadens the type of measure used to measure the return to education to include interactions with public taxtransfer systems and to consider the effect of differential employment rates on education. Mincer style wage equations are estimated for each country in order to model the return to education of gross earnings. These estimates are then incorporated into a microsimulation model to estimate social, private and fiscal returns to education in the countries. Both point estimates and a distribution of the rates of return are described.

The Geographical Spread and the Economic Impact of Food Harvest 2020 – A Regional Perspective.

working paper JEL Codes; Q12 R12 R58Recently the agri-food sector has received increased attention in Ireland. The agri-food sector has been the traditional backbone of Irish exports, and despite the economic downturn Irish exports in this sector grew by an impressive 12 percent in 2011 (CSO 2012). The agri-food sector is regarded as Ireland’s largest indigenous industry, the potential of the sector in terms of exports, and its heavy dependence on domestic inputs are the key reasons for the increased attention. The real economic value of the agri-food sector in Ireland is analysed at national, and most importantly for this paper, at regional level. This paper examines the impact of the agri-food sector in addressing regional disparities in Ireland. The estimation of the true value of the agri-food sector is evaluated at regional level by analysing Gross Value Added, employment levels and productivity rates for the sector expressed in percentage of regional values. Gross-Value-Added in absolute terms and as a percentage of regional Gross-Value- Added provides us with a more thorough understanding of the regional importance of certain industries within the sector. In terms of employment, the rural context of the agri-food sector is discussed, including the geographical spread of the sector. A comparison of regional productivity levels is analysed at national and regional level. In addition, this paper geographically distributes the change in output and employment if the four main sector specific Food Harvest 2020 targets are achieved. As a preliminary contour of the agri-food sector in Ireland this research will be useful to all the key players in the sector

The Determinants of Higher Education Participation in Ireland: A Micro Analysis

In this paper we present a theoretical model of higher education participation in Ireland. Utilising the Living in Ireland Survey data we model the impact of costs (direct and indirect), the estimated life cycle returns, environmental and parental influences and also household credit constraints on the higher education participation decision. We find that foregone earnings and youth employment rates have a negative impact on this decision; this suggests weaker labour markets for young people may have a positive impact on higher education participation. The insignificance of credit constraints in the shape of household income and maintenance grant eligibility from our estimations can also help draw some tentative policy conclusions. Our results also show that life cycle returns and parental educational level may influence participation in higher education in Ireland.

Imputation of Gross Amounts from Net Incomes in Household Surveys. An Application using EUROMOD.

Household micro-datasets often do not contain information on gross incomes. We present an algorithm which exploits the tax- and contribution rules built into tax-benefit models to convert net income information into gross amounts. Using EUROMOD, a multi-country taxbenefit model covering all fifteen countries of the European Union, net-to-gross conversions can be performed for a large number of countries utilising existing models of relevant fiscal rules. The algorithm takes into account all relevant complexities of tax- and contribution rules and can, thus, produce much more accurate results than statistical models which estimate netto- gross ratios using only a few explanatory variables. Among the features of the algorithm is the ability to distinguish between different individuals in the same household. Even if individuals’ incomes are taxed jointly, the algorithm is able to approximate separate net-togross factors for individuals in the same fiscal unit. This is possible since EUROMOD can accurately assign people to appropriate fiscal units. In addition, it is in certain cases possible to produce different net-to-gross ratios for different income components. We undertake a case study to illustrate the importance of deriving separate net-to-gross factors for different individuals within a household/fiscal unit and for different income sources of the same individual.Microsimulation; Imputation; Income; Net/Gross

Participation in Higher Education: A Random Parameter Logit Approach with Policy Simulations

In this paper we present a theoretical model of higher education participation. We assume that young people that complete upper secondary education are faced with three choices, go to higher education, not go to higher education or go to higher education and work part time. Utilizing the Living in Ireland survey data 1994-2001 we model this choice in an Irish context by variation in costs (direct and indirect), the estimated lifecycle returns and household credit constraints. Using a random parameters logit choice model we find that simulated lifecycle earnings positively impact the educational/labour choices of young individuals in Ireland. This positive relationship is also found to be true for a choice-specific household income variable constructed in the paper. From the random parameters logit estimations we also find that preferences for choices with higher simulated lifecycle earnings and household income vary across individuals. We conduct policy simulations from our estimations and found that increasing student financial aid levels by 10% combined with a slight widening of the income limits for these aids can lead to significant movement away from the decision to not enter higher education.higher education participation, random parameters logit model, lifecycle simulated earnings, higher education policy

Towards a multi-purpose framework for tax-benefit microsimulation: lessons from EUROMOD

Tax-benefit models provide tools for policy analyses that should enable researchers to focus their attention on formulating policy scenarios and analysing their effects. From the users? and the developers? points of view, numerous characteristics and features are desirable to maximise the model?s usefulness. A model framework that offers generalised components essential for tax-benefit modelling while at the same time providing a large degree of flexibility in defining the specific parameters can be re-used for a multitude of modelling purposes. This paper discusses issues arising in the construction of such a general framework and illustrates possible approaches by reference to the the framework developed for construction of the EUROMOD tax-benefit model. EUROMOD is an integrated tax-benefit microsimulation model covering 15 (pre 2004) countries that are members of the European Union (Immervoll et al, 1999) as well as 4 of the New Member States. Implementing this many tax-benefit systems in one single consistent framework requires a robust yet flexible structure. The framework needs to reflect the basic structural characteristics of tax-benefit systems while leaving enough room for a diversity of particular instruments and rules. This paper outlines the general model framework adopted. We argue that, apart from its direct usefulness for EUROMOD, the framework has far wider applicability as a general approach to static tax-benefit microsimulation modelling.

Utilising Microsimulation to Estimate New Marginal Returns to Education: Ireland 1987-2005

In this paper we utilise microsimulation techniques in the form of an income generation model and a tax/benefit model to estimate both the fiscal and net private return to education at a marginal level. This is carried out empirically using Irish data across the period 1987-2005 and is the first study to utilise these techniques in such a manner. The results indicate that a more generous tax/benefit system, combined with a greater state burden of the cost of education over this period may have helped increase the individual’s return to education, while reducing the state return from investing in education. The methodology employed allows us to specifically analyse the impact of various components of the tax/benefit system upon these returns across time and show the role of income tax changes upon the return to education for the individual and the state.returns to education, microsimulation, income generation model

Ready to Go? EU Enlargement and Migration Potential: Lessons from the Czech Republic in the Context of the Irish Migration Experience

EU enlargement is hardly can be seen as the major push factor for migration. There are mainly economic factors that influence the migration decisions. Besides it seems that there is a migration potential, unique for every country, that pre-determines the migration or labor mobility. In our paper we (i) analyze the impact of internal economic factors, such as GDP growth, unemployment and wages on the emigration rate and (ii) compare the migration potential for the country distinguished by the high ratio of outward migrations (represented by Ireland) with those of the post-communist economy as well as the “new” EU Member (represented by the Czech Republic). We come to conclusions that economic factors have the decisive role on pre-determining the migrations and that migration potential and the propensity to migrate as a reaction to worsening of the economic conditions at home are highly correlated. These can explain why there was no mass emigration from the EU “new” Member States to the “old” Member States after the recent Enlargement, as far as it comes to migration potential needed for inducing such labour moves. The potential emigrants from new EU Members States are simply not ready to go to wealthier Member States in search of better wage and employment opportunities.migration; labour mobility; EU enlargement; Czech Republic; Ireland

Welfare Benefits and Work Incentives. An Analysis of the Distribution of Net Replacement Rates in Europe using EUROMOD, a Multi- Country Microsimulation Model.

This paper considers the methodology of measuring replacement rates, comparing simulation based approaches, which simulate replacement rates for a representative sample of the population, with other approaches that simulate replacement rates for "typical" families or are entirely based on recorded household data. We emphasise the advantages of the first method. Utilising a cross-country microsimulation model for Europe, EUROMOD, we generate the distribution of replacement rates for four European countries, Denmark, France, Spain and the UK. In particular we show the important role of household composition and the presence of other household members' incomes in preserving the standard of living while out of work. We argue that, given this strong influence of primary incomes, replacement rates are not necessarily the best indicator of the impact of the taxbenefit system in this respect. To isolate the effects of the tax-benefit system on both work incentives and the degree of social protection for the out-of-work population, we therefore introduce a new measure, the “tax-benefit-to-earnings ratio”.Net Replacement Rate; Unemployment Benefits; Work Incentives; European Union; Microsimulation

TOWARDS A MULTI-PURPOSE FRAMEWORK FOR TAX-BENEFIT MICROSIMULATION.

This paper introduces a generalised model building platform (MMEANS) for implementing and using tax-benefit microsimulation models. It is designed to aid in the construction of single- and multi-country tax- benefit models by providing all essential components and a system by which these can be parameterised and combined into a full model. We explain the conceptual and computational issues arising in the design and development of MMEANS. One application of the software has been to construct EUROMOD, a 15 country European tax-benefit model (Immervoll et al., 1999; Sutherland, 2001). However, we argue that, apart from its direct usefulness for this model, MMEANS can be used as a general software tool for microsimulation model building.Microsimulation; Tax-Benefit Model; European Union